Risk Research report cost between $200 and $2,000 per company per year depending on the depth of our reports. Let’s talk and we’ll put together a proposal based on your risk objectives.
At the low end, our quarterly reports on client portfolio risk are available for $200 per company per year. Those reports include a five to ten page summary of the key financial statement trends in a client’s portfolio.
At the high end, in addition to the quarterly risk reports, we conduct due diligence research on companies in client portfolios and meet to discuss once per quarter. The due diligence reports include information gleaned from interviews of management and others with personal knowledge of the companies in question, as well as a review of analyst reports, government filings and media articles.
In the middle ground between the portfolio analysis and due diligence reports, in addition to financial statement risk reports, clients receive an analysis of stock price momentum. These chart stock price action in relation to a stock’s triangular moving average (the blue line below). In the case of GE, that happened three times in twenty years. We use these techniques as risk assessment tools rather than what they were originally designed for: trading in and out of stocks. The cost of this service is $300 per company per year.
The more a client emphasizes quality (high return on capital, low debt, low capital expenditure requirements, ability to compound real cash earnings), and risk avoidance, in his or her stock (or bond) selection, the more our conclusions will be in harmony with their own. This does not diminish the value of the research to investors who use it to understand emerging trends in distressed, cyclical or out-of-favor securities, but as its central purpose is to understand risk, it does penalize higher-risk securities. The research can be summed up as understanding the risk inherent in a company’s current position, including competitive position and financial structure, with adjustment for emerging positive or negative trends.
Almost all investment research is based on conjecture or opinion about the future. “Company A may not be much now, but wait until next year.” There is a role for that analysis, but the role of this research is to be as concise, clear and thorough on the subject of portfolio risk as indicated by both current situation and emerging financial statement trends, based on facts with a minimum of conjecture about the future. The value of our work lies in the times we reach a different conclusion than that of our client. Our opinions are not always welcome, no matter how carefully backed by research. Our role is to counter confirmation bias, which Wikopedia defines as:
Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias,[Note 1] is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Wikopedia