Exceptional investment opportunity and inordinate risk in public companies, quantified . . .
Exceptional opportunity: businesses that generate high rates of growth and return on capital without significant new capital expenditures or debt. From time to time, those few exceptional businesses are available at reasonable prices in relation to demonstrated ability to generate free cash flow.
Inordinate risk: low and falling returns on invested capital , and increasing debt.
Investment opportunity and risk are reflected in financial statement trends.